San Diego Business Journal

With Consumer Confidence Down, Local Economic Index Falls

Thursday, December 1, 2011

An index measuring San Diego’s economy dipped by two-tenths of 1 percent in October, with half of the six components up and half falling, the fourth straight month that’s happened.

The biggest drop in the Index for Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County, compiled by the USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate, came in consumer confidence, which has fallen in five of the past six months. The two other components registering decreases were in building permits issued and stock prices of local companies.

The declines were offset by increases in the outlook for the national economy, a moderate gain in help wanted advertising, and a slight rise from a reduced number of unemployment claims filed.

“With no turning point being signaled, the outlook for the local economy remains unchanged from what was previously reported: positive but weak growth through at least the first half of 2012,” said Alan Gin, the University of San Diego economics professor who compiles the index data.

One big positive, Gin noted, was October’s job growth, up 24,000 from October 2010. That was the biggest year-over-year increase since May 2005.

— Mike Allen